Crude oil hit an all time high in rupee terms; Tuesday figures expected to be higher
In 12 hikes, petrol price has gone up by Rs 6.55 per litre and diesel by Rs 7.04 a litre.
The rupee had lost 15 paise to hit two-week closing low of 60.68 against the dollar in yesterday's trade on consistent demand for the US currency from importers and some banks on strong global cues.
The medium-term scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) is high risk due to the surging crude and gas prices. Apart from OPEC-plus cutting production, the Hamas-Israel conflict has caused fears of supply disruption. The July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24) saw positive surprises for OMCs. Strong gross refining margins (GRMs) more than offset weak marketing margins.
eclined for the third month in a row in January, falling by 2.38 per cent year-on-year to $36.43 billion, while the trade deficit widened to $22.99 billion in the month. Imports rose by 10.28 per cent year-on-year to $59.42 billion in January due to an increase gold shipments, according to the Commerce Ministry data. The trade deficit was $21.94 billion in December and $16.55 billion in January last year.
India and the US are likely to agree on an interim trade agreement before July 8 with New Delhi pushing for full exemption from the 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on domestic goods, an official said. The US on April 2 imposed an additional 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian goods but suspended it for 90 days till July 9.
Equity benchmarks shrugged off lacklustre global cues to clock smart gains on Tuesday, buoyed by strong buying interest in index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC twins. However, a depreciating rupee and unabated foreign fund outflows capped the gains, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 562.75 points or 0.94 per cent to settle at 60,655.72.
Falling oil prices, gains in index heavyweights like Reliance, HDFC and ONGC and a rebound in technology stocks saw India's stock market barometer Sensex jump 83.84 points or 1.1 per cent to close at 7,271.54.
The sustained decline in the price of crude oil has reversed the trend in petroleum product pricing. Private retailers are looking to cut prices from next month, while public sector oil companies have shaved their losses on retail sale of petrol and diesel by more than half.
More than a week after state-owned oil firms ended a 19-day pre-Karnataka poll hiatus on revising fuel prices, petrol and diesel rates have touched record highs.
The stock of Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL) fell about 3.7 per cent in trade after its Q3FY24 earnings disappointed brokerages and led to downgrades. Further, the stock, after a 15 per cent run-up over the past month prior to Monday's correction, had already factored in the upside from the business front. Its peer in the consumer space, Marico, too, saw a 4 per cent drop in its stock price.
The rupee on Wednesday declined by 16 paise to close at its fresh lifetime low of 77.60 against the US dollar amid unabated foreign fund outflows and a stronger greenback in overseas markets. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.57 and later hit the day's low of 77.61 as the dollar rebounded in global markets following hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. Crude oil prices also surged over 1 per cent, which weighed on the rupee.
After Rajasthan, petrol price on Thursday crossed the Rs 100 per litre mark in Madhya Pradesh after fuel rates were increased for the tenth day in a row. Petrol price was hiked by 34 paise per litre and diesel by 32 paise, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. While branded or additive-laced petrol, which attracts higher taxes, had crossed the Rs 100-mark in some places in states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, regular petrol crossed the physiological mark in Sriganganagar town of Rajasthan on Wednesday, and on Thursday it went past that mark in Madhya Pradesh. In Anuppur of Madhya Pradesh, petrol is priced at Rs 100.25 per litre and diesel at Rs 90.35. Fuel prices differ from state to state depending on the incidence of local taxes such as VAT and freight charges.
The ballooning of crude prices has significantly increased the country's oil import bill and it can also lead to a worsening of the current account deficit and fiscal deficit for the domestic economy.
Equity benchmarks extended their decline for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 214.85 points after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Continuous foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices also weighed on markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 214.85 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 54,892.49.
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The depreciation of the rupee, it said, reflects the wider CAD as well as lower net capital inflows.
Fiscal deficit in first half of FY19 has already reached 95.3 per cent of full-year budget estimates.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 9 per cent rise in its December quarter net profit as a planned maintenance-induced weakness in oil business earnings was offset by stability in retail and telecom verticals. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit of Rs 17,265 crore, or Rs 25.52 per share, in October-December - the third quarter of the current 2023-24 fiscal - was 9.3 per cent higher than Rs 15,792 crore, or Rs 23.19 a share, earning a year back, according to a company statement. Quarter-on-quarter, the profit was lower when compared to Rs 17,394 crore earnings in the preceding three months ended September 30.
Benchmark indices ended the day in the negative territory on Tuesday amid weak global market trends and rising crude prices. Falling for the third day running, the 30-share BSE benchmark ended 208.24 points or 0.33 per cent lower at 62,626.36. During the day, it tumbled 444.53 points or 0.70 per cent to 62,390.07.
ONGC, Sesa Sterlite, Tata Steel, RIL and HDFC emerged as the biggest losers
Earlier in his address, he said with over 500 million bank accounts in the country, it is estimated that the Indian banking system produces over one billion transactions a day.
The rise in US interest rates and associated change in the direction of capital flows, the fall in oil prices and the slowdown in China will dominate the markets, say Abheek Barua and Bidisha Ganguly
Global food prices rebounded in January this year demonstrating the volatility in the international food markets, after falling for six months since July, 2011, United Nation's body FAO said on Friday.
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
'In staples, we have still managed in rural areas.'
India's overall retail inflation eased to 4.41 per cent in September, helped by falling commodity prices, but rural inflation was at 5.05 per cent
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
India imports 1.2 billion barrels of oil, and oil prices are falling, falling...
Oil firms were supposed to break-even on sale of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene if the price of the basket of crude India buys were to come down to $67 per barrel. However, with 20 per cent depreciation in value of rupee against the dollar, the break-even point is now at $61 a barrel.
Will the rupee keep falling in value against the US dollar? What will be its impact?
India's macroeconomic indicators are improving and inflation has been coming down consistent with the central bank's forecast, but Asia's third-largest economy needs investment growth to pick up, he added.
Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
Wholesale inflation rate eased to 34-month low of (-) 0.92 per cent in April on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation has been on a declining trend for 11 months in a row and entered the negative zone in April. In June 2020 WPI was at (-) 1.81 per cent.
Many individual states experienced higher inflation than the all-India figures during the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). Retail inflation figures in Telangana, Haryana, Rajasthan and Dadra and Nagar Haveli have been higher than national numbers every month of this financial year, shows a Business Standard analysis of state-wise figures, after the March inflation data was released on Friday. Experts noted that persistent high food inflation along with differences in the weights of rural and urban indices plays into the regional variation in inflation rates.
Petrol and diesel prices on Tuesday touched fresh highs as rupee dipped to a record low of 71.54 against US dollar, making imports costlier
Petrol price was on Friday cut by Rs 2.42 per litre and diesel by Rs 2.25 a litre after an excise duty hike limited the benefit of global crude prices slumping to six-year low.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Oil India is set to usher in a new era with a road map drawn to ramp up production and diversification plans to foray into liquefied natural gas
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
'Trump administration wanted a positive tone at this summit, but there was still some anxiety that there could be some awkward moments -- and there were not.'
